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Ag news Australia

Beef Industry 2023/2024 — Australian cattle market

Stability has returned to the cattle market, reflecting the balancing act between supply and demand. Market confidence has continued to trend upward despite the weather conditions in Victoria and SA. Slaughter has been very consistent and remains the highlight of the year. After a turbulent 2023, the cattle market got back on its feet during 2024.

Stability 

Without a doubt, the cattle market has stabilised – reflecting the balancing act between supply and demand which are influenced by weather, overall confidence, and increased female slaughter, among many other factors.

Prices over the last 12 months have lifted by 20–39%, indicating the recovery of the market from the challenging conditions in 2023. The current prices are now tracking 1–20% below the 10-year average and reflect the substantial recovery the cattle market has shown over a short period of time.

Over the last year, Australia experienced two different seasonal conditions split across the south and the north. The seasonal conditions in pastoral regions in SA and western Victoria drove increased turn-off. As a result, NSW and Queensland producers benefited from this turn-off due to their favourable seasonal conditions.

Confidence 

Market confidence has certainly shifted from last year – many would say last year was the first time in a long time that producers made a decision based on a forecast rather than actual weather events. This confidence influenced buying behaviour; however, despite poor conditions in Victoria and SA, prices remained strong due to demand from NSW and Queensland producers. 

All eyes have been on the global market, particularly the United States, which has recorded the lowest cattle herd in about 70 years. This has driven high cattle prices and thus increased the volume exported. (MLA)

Input Costs 2024 and beyond

According to recent reports from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES), farmers in Australia are seeing a slight decrease in input costs in 2024/2025, with the overall trend pointing towards easing prices for key inputs like fertilizer and fuel, contributing to a potential increase in the gross value of agricultural production due to improved seasonal conditions and higher livestock prices across many regions, however, some areas might still face challenges with below-average rainfall impacting crop yields. 

Key points about Australian farmer input costs in 2024:

• Lower input costs overall:

  Compared to previous years, the cost of essential inputs like fertilizer and fuel is projected to decrease slightly, providing some relief to farmers. 

• Regional variations:

  While some regions are experiencing favorable conditions and lower input costs, others might face difficulties due to unfavorable weather patterns, leading to lower crop yields. 

• Positive outlook for livestock:

  Higher livestock prices are expected to support farm incomes, particularly for beef and sheep producers. 

• Impact of seasonal conditions:

  The success of the 2024 harvest depended significantly on rainfall patterns across the country, with potential benefits from a La Niña weather event. 

Sources for further information:

• ABARES Agricultural Commodities and Crop Reports:

  Provides detailed information on projected crop production and commodity prices. 

• Rabobank Australian Agriculture Outlook:

  Offers insights into the broader agricultural sector, including trends in input costs and market forecasts. 

Cropping 2025

According to recent reports, the Australian cropping outlook for 2025 is generally positive, with expectations of a significant increase in winter crop production, particularly in Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia, while regions like Victoria and South Australia may see lower yields due to unfavourable weather conditions; overall, the country is projected to see a rise in wheat production with a slight decline in barley and canola production compared to the previous year.

Increased production:

The winter crop harvest is expected to be significantly higher than the 10-year average, with a potential 16% increase in production volume. 

• Regional variations:

  While some states like NSW and WA are anticipated to see strong crop yields, Victoria and South Australia may experience lower production due to below-average rainfall. 

• Wheat outlook:

  Wheat production is projected to rise due to favorable conditions in key growing regions. 

• Barley and Canola concerns:

  Barley and canola production is expected to decline slightly due to weather challenges and smaller planting areas. 

• Export opportunities:

  The increased production is likely to lead to larger export volumes, especially if global market demand remains strong. 

Important factors to consider:

• Weather patterns:

  Continued monitoring of seasonal conditions will be crucial as weather fluctuations can significantly impact crop yields. 

• Global market dynamics:

  International market trends and potential trade disruptions could influence Australian crop prices. 

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Please Meet,  Chris Ferguson

Chris Ferguson is a goat grazer who works between far north-west and central New South Wales. She runs the popular social media blog, Life in the Mulga. She’s a passionate advocate for rural Australia and has amassed almost 9k followers on her Instagram and Facebook blogs. Chris utilises her platform to raise awareness of the challenges impacting life in regional Australia.  

Having worked on farms since she was young when Chris was 30, she and her then-husband purchased land for a farm. Years later after her separation, Chris bought out her ex-husband’s share in the property and farmed as a single woman for several years. She later re-partnered with another farmer, who she later purchased a large farm with. 

Chris strives to show the real face of agriculture in Australia, and the important role women play in agriculture, through her social media. Noting the lack of people and businesses located in regional areas, Chris hopes to see more people choose to live in regional and rural areas and believes this will have a critical impact on the growth of the Australian agricultural industry.

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