This week's roundup: Farmers are selling cattle, Feedgrain Focus, The Australian Agriculture Equipment Market, Fuel Reality Hits Hard, Australia secures fertiliser, and more updates. Plus, fresh listings, auction dates, and more from across Australian ag. Let's get into it →

In short:
An Upper Hunter saleyard has held its biggest cattle sale in 20 years as the drought intensifies. Feed shortages and a dry outlook are driving the cattle sell-offs across New South Wales.

What's next:
The Bureau of Meteorology says there is an "increased chance" of an El Niño later this year

Staring down the barrel of no feed, high diesel costs and now an El Niño forecast, farmers are offloading livestock in droves.

Across New South Wales, more than half a million cattle have already been sold through saleyards this year, up from around 377,000 head this time last year.

At Scone, in the NSW Upper Hunter, agents have just held their largest cattle sale in 20 years.

"We went close in 2016-17, with the last drought," stock agent Stuart Sheldrake said.

Tuesday's sale was second only to a yarding two decades ago, almost to the day, where 3,647 head were sold. 

Scone has already seen more than half of last financial year's total volume of cattle go through the yards in just 11 weeks this year.

Mr Sheldrake said it was a telling snapshot of how dry the Hunter Valley had become.

"We came off an unbelievable first half of 2025, and then the tap turned off at the end of August," Mr Sheldrake said.  "It's been short and sharp."

Scone broke it's 24 hour rainfall record earlier this year, but the mass volume of rain came in just a two-hour window, too quickly to really soak in.

Hot, dry conditions have absorbed any moisture.

The current conditions are increasingly being compared to those of the 2016-2019 period, which was dubbed the worst drought in living memory.

Many in the industry have been quick to enact drought management plans this time around, making tough calls to sell stock to protect their core breeding herd.

Mr Sheldrake said the impacts of the Middle East conflict were also playing a huge part in drought decisions.

"With fuel prices at the moment, freight, and lack of stock feed about, it's an easy decision this time in for them to sell and obviously put a bit in the back pocket as well."

The saving grace at the moment has been a much stronger cattle market.

"We've never experienced a dry time like this and experienced a market as well as it is," Mr Sheldrake said.

And with winter just around the corner, Mr Sheldrake said the livestock sell-off would likely continue.

Singleton held its biggest sale in eight years on Wednesday, and early yarding numbers suggested the Dubbo cattle sale could break its record tomorrow.

El Niño forecast, but farmers are already feeling the big dry

The forecast El Niño could become one of the strongest on record.

"There's nothing on the horizon... " It's going to be a tough winter," Mr Sheldrake said.

Western NSW grazier Amanda Thorpe said a lot was being thrown at the farming sector, as she too navigates the drought.

"It seems like the world's on fire. There are so many other factors that normally wouldn't come into this decision, such as fuel security and cost," she said.

Ms Thorpe has already sold some young stock but is holding on to the breeding cows she has invested heavily in, sending them off on agistment.

"We have sent four road trains to Wanaaring [north-west of Bourke, NSW] and three to Longreach [in central Queensland]," she said.

"We have been feeding since October and are a bit emotionally spent — still burnt from the last drought.

"Sending the girls has taken the pressure right off! It's created some breathing room for us and the remaining stock here."

She likened buying stock after the last drought to "the Hunger Games" but after a big investment then, she is determined to see them through.

"We bought heaps of heifers at the time and went for the long game; those girls have served us well, and I don't want them to go."

Ms Thorpe said there were "hard lessons" learnt during the last drought.

"[It's] still burned in everyone's memories, so we're really drought-weary. We can't believe we're here again.

"I think people are taking it a little harder because it has come so fast and hard. We did have a good patch there, but we're right back there again."

HEAVY rain and flooding in parts of Queensland, and compounding uncertainty around supplies of urea for the upcoming winter-crop season, have created some big spikes in the northern market this week.

In the south, the impact of dearer fuel and urea prices is being softened by the rosy start to the season, thanks to rain that fell at around the same time hostilities between Iran and US-Israeli forces escalated.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Some cropping areas in Central and southern Qld received some very heavy rain in the week to 9am today.

Higher registrations include: Clermont 110mm; Dalby 73mm; Emerald 185mm; Jondaryan 50mm; Macalister 114mm; Miles 217mm, and Roma 72mm.

However, many districts received no rain, and the experience was similar in northern New South Wales, where higher registrations include: Narrabri 86mm; Pallamallawa 45mm; Parkes 59mm, and Quirindi 20mm.

In Qld, rain caused some road closures, but growers were generally able to outload their sorghum to export.

Uncertainty around fuel pricing and supply has been a bigger issue following a diesel price rise of around 25 per cent since the Middle East conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz.

“We’re going to take a hit this week because it is so hard to change existing contracts,” Ambrose Haulage managing director Jim Ambrose said.

“We’ve priced new freight at rates to regain losses, and our customers have been wonderful.”

They include grain-trading companies, and runs include triples at Hebel on the Qld-NSW border going to feedlots in Condamine.

Mr Ambrose said the fuel hike has added around $3.50/t to the base central Downs to Brisbane rate of $30/t.

One grain trader said he acknowledged the higher fuel prices that trucking companies were paying.

“We were paying $30/t freight last week from the central Downs to Brisbane, and now they’re up to $35; that’s our margin gone,” the trader said

The Goondiwindi-based Ambrose Haulage is running 35 trucks, and Mr Ambrose said even their trucks on the Hebel-Condamine run have been able to access fuel.

Mr Ambrose explained the economics and said the company tries to be transparent on its pricing to customers.

“That western work is expensive on fuel; it’s 30-40c [per litre] more.

“Western fuel is dearer; our cheapest fuel is always in Brisbane.

“Transport’s not easy at the moment.”

Mr Ambrose is hopeful prices will drift lower by next week as Australia takes comfort in assured supply for the domestic market, despite the Middle East conflict.

“I’m assuming this will be a storm in a teacup and it will be back to normal in a fortnight.”

Sunrise Commodities managing director Scott Merson said farm gate values for sorghum rose by around $10/t over the past week.

“A lot of delivered values were higher than that,” Mr Merson said.

The stronger prices were paid for the delivered Brisbane market, where recently harvested sorghum is being exported in bulk to China.

“The rain slowed down selling, but logistically, it was not a massive issue.”

Most sorghum on the western and central Downs, and in northern NSW beyond the Liverpool Plains, has been harvested.

Some sorghum downgraded because of the rain has been trading in small amounts into piggeries at a discount of around $20/t to the top grade.

“On the whole, it’s not a big problem.”

Traders report little interest from Qld and northern NSW growers in selling wheat at current levels, and with barley stocks limited north of the border, NSW growers are holding what they have.

That means most new business is being executed out of up-country warehousing.

With limited subsoil moisture in most cropping districts in northern NSW, and growers alarmed by the prospects of in-crop urea being expensive and hard to get, the region’s winter crop may be a small one.

“If this continues, we could run to cover the cost of execution (of cereals) to the Downs from South Australia; it’s happened before.”

ASW-type wheat has traded into some Downs sites at a high of $370/t in the past week, although most trades have been closer to $363/t.

“Growers are not selling; where the grain is, they’re bone dry.

“What farmers are saying to themselves is: Even if we do get rain, are we better off following through to the summer crop?

As growers look at the heady cost of production for new-crop, based on the Middle East conflict’s impact on fuel and fertiliser, they are feeling that new-crop owes them even more than the current crop.

“In Queensland, we’ve got 900,000 head of cattle to feed…and then there’s the chooks; that’s a lot of demand.”

AgVantage Commodities broker Brendon Warnock said this week has seen increased volatility and uncertainty based around the fuel and fertiliser markets, both price and supply-wise.

In contrast to this time last year, when ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred set up northern NSW for a strong start to winter cropping, Mr Warnock said confidence in new-crop planting was limited.

“People are mentioning that if things don’t change, [they] just won’t plant,” Mr Warnock said.

“If we were to get an east-coast low…and a widespread 200mm, they would go ahead and plant something.

“We haven’t seen a widespread rain event, and growers are saying that maybe this is the grain that’s going to have to last me for two years,” he said of on-farm stocks.

Mr Warnock said the steady increase in prices, as has been evident on AgVantage Commodities’ Market Place trading platform, shows consumers are extending coverage as prices firm.

In Victoria, Pinion Advisory broker Andy Brown said grower selling has remained thin, with higher road freight rates to reflect dearer fuel negating firmer cash prices for wheat and barley.

“The market has snuck up, but we’ve probably lost more in freight to get it to port,” Mr Brown said.

Despite expensive fuel and urea, he said the mood in Vic was upbeat following “unbelievable rain” of 50-200mm over much of Vic’s key grain-growing regions.

“It doesn’t get much better.”

Mr Brown said he fielded three questions from just about every grower who rang him after the rain.

“The first was about fuel, the second was about urea, and the third was about canola seed.

“Everyone is upbeat, other than the fact that inputs are more expensive.”

Canola’s in-crop appetite for nitrogen has not dented its appeal to Vic growers.

“Gross margin-wise, canola is going to be well ahead of wheat; at $750/t Geelong, it’s stacking up.

“Potentially, we’ll see a few more pulses going in the ground, just because of the price of urea.”

IMPACT OF TARIFF

AUSTRALIA AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT MARKET TRENDS

Technological Innovation and the Rise of Autonomous Farming

Growing Prominence of Electric Agricultural Equipment

Growing Usage of Alternative Fuels in Agricultural Tractors

AUSTRALIA AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT MARKET DRIVERS

Growth in Winter Crop Productivity

Increased Investments in the Australian Agricultural

Export Market Dynamics and Global Demand

INDUSTRY RESTRAINTS

Rainfall Deficiency and Prolonged Drought Conditions

Declining Farmer Profitability and Commodity Price Weakness

AUSTRALIA AGRICULTURE EQUIPMENT MARKET SEGMENTATION INSIGHTS

AUSTRALIA AGRICULTURE EQUIPMENT MARKET GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS

AUSTRALIA AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT MARKET VENDOR ANALYSIS

The agriculture equipment market in Australia is competitive and dominated by both global and strong domestic manufacturers. Companies like John Deere, CNH Industrial, Kubota, and AGCO hold a significant share of the market.

The top three companies thrive on innovation, strong dealer networks, and technology to attract Australian farmers across diverse operations from broadacre to mixed farming.

John Deere's 2025 Australian market strategy centres on unprecedented horsepower capabilities combined with advanced autonomy and an aggressive electrification roadmap.

Recent Developments in the Australian Agriculture Equipment Market

WHY SHOULD YOU BUY THIS REPORT?

This report is among the few in the market that offer outlook and opportunity analyses forecast in terms of the following:

This week has been one of the most telling yet for Australian agriculture — and the pressure is no longer building, it’s fully here.

Across NSW, farmers are effectively running on empty, with diesel prices sitting above $3 per litre in many regions. Supply has become tighter, deliveries are being managed more carefully, and in some cases delayed — forcing producers to plan fuel use just to keep operations moving during critical windows.

At the same time, a refinery disruption in Victoria has tightened the broader fuel supply, highlighting how exposed Australia’s fuel network can be when issues arise locally.

Input pressure is rising just as quickly. Fertiliser supply remains under strain due to global disruptions, with key imports still affected by geopolitical tension. For many operations, fuel and fertiliser are now driving a significant portion of total costs, placing real pressure on margins.

The result is clear — higher costs, less certainty, and tighter cash flow.

But the response from farmers this week is decisive.

There’s a clear shift toward control and restructuring. More producers are refinancing existing debt, negotiating better terms, and freeing up cash flow. Others are unlocking equity in land or equipment to operate more efficiently rather than expand.

In this environment, Pay In Time Finance is working alongside Australian farmers to restructure lending, reduce repayment pressure, and align equipment and asset finance with seasonal income.

It’s a tough period — but the operators who stay proactive and structured are the ones staying in control.

We are currently representing a qualified buyer seeking to secure quality rural land within the Riverina region.

Acquisition Criteria:
⦁ Approximately 3,000 acres in a single holding, or
⦁ Up to three separate properties
⦁ If multiple holdings, properties should be located within an approximate 300 km radius

Key Requirements:

⦁ A reliable and secure water supply is essential
⦁ Productive soil types, suitable for lucerne and general cropping
⦁ Shedding and structural improvements are not a priority
⦁ Residential dwellings are not required

This is a genuine opportunity for landholders considering a sale or exploring market interest.

For confidential discussions or to express interest, please get in touch with our team.
📞Dale McCleary
PH: 0474 230 633
E: [email protected]

About 60% of the nation’s supplies of urea normally travel through the now largely shut Strait of Hormuz

[MELBOURNE] Australia will purchase 250,000 tonnes of agricultural-grade urea from Indonesia to help fill gaps in its supply left by disruptions from the war in Iran.

In a deal facilitated by the two governments, Incitec Pivot Fertilisers will purchase the urea from Pupuk Indonesia Holding, fulfilling about 20 per cent of Australia’s remaining requirements for the upcoming winter crop, which includes major grains and oilseeds such as wheat, barley and canola.

Although there’s more to do, “this additional volume will go a long way to shoring up critical supplies to Australian farmers”, Incitec’s president, Scott Bowman, said in a statement.

Prices of fertiliser have doubled in parts of Australia since the outbreak of the war. About 60 per cent of the nation’s supplies of urea normally travel through the now largely shut Strait of Hormuz. Some growers are rotating to less fertiliser-intensive crops to deal with the growing uncertainty, which will likely reduce the amount of wheat grown.

Like much of Southeast Asia, Indonesia is a major importer of Australian agricultural produce, especially wheat.

Indonesia has a surplus of 1.5 million tonnes of urea, which opens up an opportunity to export to countries including Australia, Indonesia’s Vice Agriculture Minister Sudaryono said in a separate statement. Other nations, including India, the Philippines and Brazil, have also expressed an interest, he said. BLOOMBERG

At this point, you don’t need to look at Silicon Valley to see where AI is actually going. Just look at what Syngenta is doing on the ground. As a global agriculture company working directly with farmers on seeds, crop protection, and farm operations, they’re embedding it into decisions farmers already make (when to plant, what to apply, how to respond when conditions shift) so the outcome is simpler and faster. 

It’s not presented as a system to learn or a tool to manage. It sits inside decisions that already have to be made. That’s the real shift. AI isn’t showing up as something separate from the work. It’s being layered into the work itself. Once you see it like that, the pattern becomes obvious, and it shows up in three consistent ways. You’ll see what that looks like in practice below.

Fewer Decisions, Not More Tools

Most operators aren’t short on software but on headspace. When every quote, follow-up, and schedule change requires a fresh decision, the day fills up with small calls that drain focus. What we’re seeing in practice is a move toward systems that collapse repeated decisions into clear next steps. The work doesn’t change, but the number of times you have to think it through does. That’s where the real leverage starts to show up across quoting, admin, and day-to-day coordination.

Timing Beats Intelligence

In operations, knowing what to do is rarely the issue. Acting at the right time is. Late replies lose jobs, late orders cost money, and late follow-ups quietly kill momentum. The newer AI layer tightens timing by surfacing what needs attention earlier and keeping things moving when the day gets busy. It doesn’t make decisions for you; it makes it harder to miss the moment when a decision matters.

Thinking, Off Your Plate

A lot of operational load sits in your head—who to chase, what’s pending, what slipped. That works until it doesn’t. We’ve been building simple systems with operators that take recurring thinking out of the loop and place it into prompts, reminders, and lightweight automations. Once it’s in place, the difference is immediate: fewer loose ends, steadier follow-through, and less second-guessing across the week.

Want to Remove the Friction From Your Week?

If you’re feeling the drag of small decisions stacking up, that’s exactly where this fits. We can map where time is being lost, tighten the flow, and put the obvious next steps on rails without adding complexity. If you want to see what that could look like in your setup, email [email protected] and we’ll share a few practical examples.

G’day REALM Readers…

There’s a pretty unique project out of the Northern Territory that I reckon is well worth getting behind. Pasture: The Livestock Simulator is an Australian-made game designed to replicate life on a cattle station - from mustering and herd management through to making real-world livestock decisions. It’s built by Territory locals, a global first and based on the reality of the industry, not some overseas interpretation.

I've been to several conferences around Australia over the last 3 years where I've seen kids playing it - they are intrigued - who wouldn't be - flying choppers, catching scrub bulls in bull catchers, directing road trains - it has them asking questions, and some are actually fascinated that they can do this in real life!

What makes this one different is the bigger picture. The next generation coming into Ag is already spending time on screens - and 'Pasture' is meeting them where they are. We’ve all seen how games spark interest in machinery, farming and rural life. This is Australia’s chance to do the same for our cattle industry, in our own way.

The two founders, Nathan and CJ, aren’t outsiders. They’ve lived it. Both born and bred in the Territory, they’ve taken very different paths - from the Army and business ownership to running companies and working around the world - before coming together to build something that reflects the industry they grew up around. It’s a proper grassroots effort, years in the making.

The project is now live on Kickstarter, and this is where the industry can play a role. If we want more people to understand what we do, consider a career in Ag, and get exposure to cattle station life, this is exactly the kind of initiative worth supporting.

Quick note: if you do choose to back the project via our link, and we reach the goal, RFTTE may receive a small commission at no extra cost to you - it just helps us keep running this newsletter and continue supporting the industry with projects like this.

So if you like the idea of backing two Territory blokes having a crack - and helping showcase Australian agriculture to the next generation - jump in and support the project.

HELP THEM REACH THEIR GOAL

HELP THEM REACH THEIR GOAL: https://rfttejobs.news/Pasture

Hooroo for now,
Simon Cheatham
Founder RFTTE - The Online Campfire
0417 277 488 | [email protected]

Strategy & Ops Lead (I get sh*t done!)